About 97 per cent of the estimated 365 lakh bales (170 kg each) of cotton crop for the 2017-18 season has arrived in the market by July-end, the Cotton Association of India (CAI) has said in its latest estimate of India’s cotton situation. The CAI has kept its estimate for the current season beginning October 1, 2017 unchanged from previous two estimates.
The CAI has, however, revised the state-wise crop estimate for the North Zone compared to the estimate made during the last month, based on the arrival figures up to July 31, 2018 reported by the respective states.
In Punjab and Haryana, the crop estimates for the season have been reduced by 2 lakh bales and 50,000 bales respectively compared to the estimate made during the last month. However, the crop estimates for Upper Rajasthan and Lower Rajasthan have been increased by 1.00 lakh bales and 1.50 lakh bales respectively compared to the last month based on the arrival figures.
The CAI has projected total cotton supply up to July 31, 2018 at 400.45 lakh bales. This includes arrival of 353.45 lakh bales up to July 31, 2018; estimated imports of 11 lakh bales; and the opening stock of 36 lakh bales at the beginning of the season as on October 1, 2017.
Further, the CAI has estimated cotton consumption for 10 months i.e. from October 2017 to July 2018 at 270 lakh bales, while the shipment of cotton till July 31, 2018 has been estimated at 67 lakh bales.
Thus, the stock at the end of July 2018 is estimated at 63.45 lakh bales including 42.65 lakh bales with textile mills while the remaining 20.80 lakh bales are estimated to be held by CCI and others (MNCs, traders, ginners, etc).
The projected yearly Balance Sheet for the Season 2017-18 drawn by the CAI estimates total cotton supply till end of the season i.e. up to September 30, 2018 at 416 lakh bales of 170 kg each. This includes opening stock of 36 lakh bales at the beginning of the season. The CAI has estimated domestic consumption for the season at 324 lakh bales while the exports are estimated to be 70 lakh bales. The carry-over stock at the end of the 2017-18 season is estimated by at 22 lakh bales.